The Markup

Anthropic put a price on its IPO. Apptronik lined up as many as 1,000 humanoids for GXO. AMD is buying into PsiQuantum. OpenAI reportedly booked its first $10B quarter. Valar Atomics filed for its first permit. SpaceXAI is going for the double catch. Kalshi got a warning from its own regulator.

A lot to unpack this week.

Let's get into it.

📈 Portfolio Pulse

🧠 Anthropic: The Roadshow Is Live

Anthropic launched its IPO roadshow on November 10: 825 million Class A shares at $70 to $78, listing on Nasdaq as ANT. The amended S-1 adds a $26.0B private placement to seven strategics at the IPO price, led by Google and NVIDIA at about $10.0B each. On the basic share count, the range works out to about $916B to $1.02T. Fully diluted estimates reportedly run to about $1.4T. Pricing is reportedly set for November 18, with first trade the next day. Run-rate revenue sits at about $81B as of October 31. Every frontier lab mark is about to get a public comp.

🤖 Apptronik: Up to 1,000 Apollos for GXO

GXO, the largest pure-play contract logistics provider, signed a letter of intent with Apptronik to expand Apollo trials and build a Robotics-as-a-Service framework for scaled deployment. Live warehouse trials start in 2027 across picking, case and tote movement, packing and sortation, each gated by jointly agreed KPIs. If Apollo hits the marks, the plan is up to 1,000 humanoids over four years, with the first North American deployments in late 2027. The partnership started as a 2024 proof of concept. It's an LOI, not a purchase order. But RaaS means recurring revenue, and 1,000 is a real number.

🔬 PsiQuantum: AMD Buys In

AMD plans to invest in PsiQuantum, amount undisclosed, as the two widen a partnership that already runs on AMD's Versal FPGAs. The new phase adds Instinct GPUs, EPYC CPUs and the ROCm software stack to co-design the classical infrastructure behind fault-tolerant quantum machines. First target is drug discovery, where PsiQuantum's chemistry methods already run on AMD GPUs. More details are due at SC26 in Chicago, November 15 to 20. The least glamorous bottleneck in quantum is the classical control stack. Now a chip giant has skin in it.

💰 OpenAI: A $10B Quarter, a $10.9B Loss

OpenAI's quarterly revenue reportedly crossed $10B for the first time, up nearly 50% from about $6.7B in Q2, based on figures shared with investors. The adjusted operating loss widened to about $10.9B from $10.1B, even as adjusted operating margin improved from roughly -150% to -109%. Annualized run rate reportedly reached about $50B by the end of September. These are investor-shared numbers, not audited financials. They landed the same week Anthropic put its S-1 in front of public buyers. Growth is not the question. Margin is.

☢️ Valar Atomics: First Permit, First Fight

Valar Atomics filed its first permit application for the Raceway Energy Campus, about 640 acres of state trust land near Wellington in Carbon County, Utah. The plan pairs a natural gas plant with dozens of small reactors, fuel fabrication, spent fuel storage, manufacturing and data centers. Valar wants the conditional use permit to cover future changes in reactor designs and counts. The county planning commission called a special meeting on it for Thursday night, and opponents planned to show up in numbers. Local pushback has been building for months. Reactor physics was the easy part. Permits are the real criticality test.

🚀 SpaceXAI: Going for the Double Catch

Starship Flight 15 is targeting Friday, November 13, with a 75-minute window opening at 5:45 p.m. ET from Starbase. The plan: catch Booster 22 about six and a half minutes after launch, then bring Ship 42 back to the tower the next day after roughly 21 hours and 14 orbits, deploying Starlink V3 satellites along the way. No orbital upper stage has ever been recovered this way. Musk puts the odds at "more likely than not." As of earlier this week, the FAA had yet to list a launch license. Catch both and the whole rocket comes home. That rewrites the cost curve on everything SpaceX flies.

📊 Kalshi: A Warning From Its Own Regulator

The CFTC warned Kalshi of imminent charges in a probe into whether it properly notified the agency about dozens of new products, according to a person familiar with the matter. Kalshi called it "a procedural error involving the submission of a handful of contracts, many of which weren't live," and says it is already addressing it. It lands weeks after Kalshi raised $1B at a $40B valuation, co-led by Sequoia and Wellington, and as it pushes into perpetual futures. Kalshi's whole defense against the states is that the CFTC is its regulator. Best to stay on good terms.

👀 Watch List

🗳️ Polymarket: Cutting to Grow Up

Polymarket confirmed layoffs and contractor cuts in a restructuring that hit marketing, customer experience and engineering. More than half of those affected were contractors. The company disputed reports of a 30% cut but didn't say how many people left. New leadership drove it: Warren Jenson joined as first CFO in September, and former Uber exec Travis VanderZanden came in as chief growth officer. Meanwhile, Kalshi has overtaken Polymarket in monthly trading volume, per Reuters. One prediction market is raising at $40B. The other is reorganizing.

🧱 Databricks: New HQ, Bigger Genie

Databricks opened its new San Francisco headquarters at One Sansome: 201,000 square feet now, 235,000 by next fall, part of a $1B+ commitment to the city through early 2028. The teams there build Lakebase, Unity Gateway and Genie, now pitched as an always-on, autonomous agent for enterprise work. The company restated its August numbers: a $7B+ revenue run rate, 80%+ growth and a $190B valuation, with 12,000+ employees and 70% of the Fortune 500 as customers. Databricks used to sell the data layer agents query. Now it sells the agent.

💬 Prompt

What can I help you with?

Here's a photo of my desk. Tell me what a stranger would conclude about my priorities, my attention span, and what I'm avoiding.

Prompt

📚 Content

🚙 Claude Hacks a 1994 Jeep

Muhammad (@zulali) let Claude reverse engineer his 32-year-old Jeep over a weekend, and then it started controlling the car. The clip has 1.7M views and 11K bookmarks, and the full YouTube walkthrough and GitHub repo are in the thread. Agents are no longer stuck in the browser: if a system has wires, it can be decoded and driven.

🚀 Starship’s Whole Flight, on One Page

Elon posted a clean diagram of a full Starship mission. Super Heavy hot-stages, flips, boosts back and gets caught by the tower. Starship goes on to orbital insertion, a Starlink deploy, a coast phase, a deorbit burn and reentry. It’s the clearest explainer yet of why full reuse changes the cost curve for SpaceX and for everything that wants to ride on it, orbital data centers included.

🕹️ Boring Company’s Tunnel Mission Control

The Boring Company shows its Global Ops Center in Bastrop, TX. One room of operators remotely runs tunneling machines in Vegas and Nashville, and is commissioning one in San Antonio. The top reply calls them “the PlayStation controllers,” and that’s not far off. Remote operation is how you scale heavy machinery without scaling crews, and the same playbook reads across to Gecko Robotics and Saronic.

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LFG Ventures

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