Primes, Production, & Power

📈 Portfolio Pulse

🛡️ Anduril: First Fury Off the Line

Anduril rolled its first serial-production YFQ-44A Fury off the Arsenal-1 line in Ohio, a plant that was an empty field 557 days ago, built to turn out up to 150 CCA aircraft a year for the Air Force. Legacy primes take three to five years to stand up a line like this. Moving from prototype to serial production validates the hyperscale-manufacturing thesis and de-risks CCA revenue ahead of the next raise. The line is real. The output is the story now.

🧠 Anthropic: Opus 5, and Claude Breaks Crypto

Anthropic launched Claude Opus 5 just two months after 4.8, cheaper and less restricted than Fable 5, with opt-in Automatic Fallbacks routing. Then it published research showing Claude independently found novel attacks on cryptography, halving the security margin of NIST post-quantum candidate HAWK and speeding an attack on research-grade AES by up to 800x. On policy, Amodei signed the Pacing the Frontier letter and clarified Anthropic never called to ban open weights while backing chip-export limits. A frontier model producing genuinely novel math moves AI-for-science from pitch to proof.

💻 OpenAI: $250B of Vendor-Financed Compute

Nvidia is in talks to backstop up to $250B of financing for a 10-gigawatt single-tenant OpenAI campus in Pike County, Ohio, part of a buildout reported near $500B. OpenAI also hired Thinking Machines co-founder Lilian Weng to lead a recursive self-improvement team, opened free frontier access to 100,000 academics under a $250M-plus commitment, and confirmed a Dublin EU headquarters adding 250 roles. Vendor-financed demand is becoming the funding architecture of frontier AI, extending OpenAI's runway while concentrating counterparty risk across Nvidia, OpenAI, and SoftBank.

🚀 SpaceX: $1.6B Order, V3 Flies

SpaceX won a $1.6B Space Force order to fly 18 Falcon 9 missions through 2027, carrying Golden Dome sensing satellites and pushing its 2026 Pentagon total past $7B, with ULA and Blue Origin grounded by reviews. On the hardware side, Starship Flight 13 deployed the first operational Starlink V3 satellites, each rated near 1 Tbps, roughly 10x V2, and stuck its first intact upper-stage splashdown. The FCC also granted Starlink routers a conditional exemption from the foreign-router ban through February 2028. Near-monopoly launch, a satcom step-change, and a supply-chain overhang cleared, all in a week.

📈 Kalshi: $12.4B World Cup, Minnesota Win

Kalshi took $12.4B in World Cup volume excluding parlays and added roughly 3 million users, with about a third now trading outside sports, the cross-sell signal that turns a tournament spike into durable engagement. On the legal front, a federal judge in Minnesota paused the state's ban on likely federal-preemption grounds, a win shared with Polymarket and the CFTC, even as it settled with Nevada to geofence the state and fired a cease-and-desist at Netflix over a documentary trailer. Reportedly raising near $40B, the engagement is real and so is the legal surface area.

🖥️ Perplexity: The Agent Hits Windows

Perplexity brought its Personal Computer agent to Windows, extending beyond April's Mac release to run multi-app workflows across local files, Microsoft 365, and the web, starting at $200-plus Max and Enterprise Max seats. It also shipped pplx, a single-binary CLI that wraps its Search API into grounded JSON for coding agents at $5 per 1,000 requests. Reaching the billion-plus Windows base puts Perplexity head-to-head with Microsoft Copilot while the dev tool pushes it toward agent infrastructure, not just consumer search.

⚓ Saronic: Samsung Ships In

Saronic struck a strategic partnership with Samsung Heavy Industries to co-develop autonomy-capable maritime systems and robotics-based production automation, unveiled at the launch of the Korea-US Shipbuilding Partnership Center. Tying its autonomy stack to a top-tier shipbuilder's industrial capacity de-risks the manufacturing ramp behind its $9.25B valuation. The autonomous fleet is only as real as the yard that can build it.

🦼 Neuralink: Driving by Thought

Neuralink demonstrated PRIME Study participants steering powered wheelchairs by thought alone, extending decoded motor-cortex control from screens to physical navigation. It broadens the N1 implant's addressable use toward mobility restoration ahead of the electrode-count jump and Blindsight, though it remains investigational. The cursor was the demo. The wheelchair is the point.

⏳ Reflection AI: Behind Schedule

The Information reported that Nvidia-backed Reflection AI is behind schedule on its flagship open-weight model, risking ground to Chinese and US open-weight rivals as enterprises and governments standardize on open models. Against a fast-commoditizing field, a slipping release turns execution into the whole thesis and pressures the step-up valuation the Nvidia narrative was built on. The window for an also-ran open-weight lab closes fast.

👀 Watch List

🚇 The Boring Company: ~$20B on the Table

The Boring Company is reportedly in talks to raise about $4B at a ~$20B valuation, close to double its ~$9.6B mark from September and roughly 4x its 2022 level, with tunnel projects live in Las Vegas, Nashville, and Dubai.

🛩️ Skydio: Cleared Across the Board

Skydio added its full current lineup to the DoD Blue UAS Cleared List, including the first and only Blue UAS-cleared Drone-as-First-Responder solution. Clearance unlocks federal and DoD procurement across the product line and hands Skydio a sole-source position in DFR, widening its moat against DJI. In defense drones, the cleared list is the moat.

💬 Prompt

What can I help you with?

Give me five business models that would be illegal today but completely legitimate in 10 years. For each one, explain what has to change, who the first customers are, and what the company looks like on the day it becomes legal.

📚 Content

🔒 Illiquidity is a Feature

We are experiencing a lot of volatility in the public market these days. The best thing about a private market position is that you can't check it every four seconds or dump it on a red morning. Illiquidity forces the one behavior most investors can't hold on their own: patience. Although liquidity is important, look at your investments with a long-term perspective.

As Warren Buffett wisely once said, "The stock market is a mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient."

In the words of Kenneth Fisher, "Time in the market beats timing the market - almost always."

The lock-up is an edge.

🛢️ AI is Oil, Not God

Packy McCormick on why Nadella, Jensen, and roughly $8T of market cap suddenly showed up for open weights: everyone tries to commoditize their complement, and here that self-interest lines up with ours. The useful part is the frame, AI as an economically useful commodity to refine and scale, not a deity that wakes up and makes us subservient. A clean counterweight to the week's rogue-model panic.

🎙️ Sam Altman on Making an Abundant Future

Patrick O'Shaughnessy landed a full Altman sit-down: the compute buildout that "wasn't reckless enough," why ChatGPT was never meant to be a product, and the few moats left once intelligence becomes a commodity. The clearest state-of-OpenAI you'll get this quarter, and it reads straight across the whole frontier-compute trade.

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